The beauty is that nobody knows. That's what makes this so enjoyable. Would you rather work on a problem where everyone knows the answer and the question is who builds it the fastest?
I just wish the signal-to-noise ratio was a bit lower. I'd agree with you if people got zapped with cattle prods for making bullshit claims. As it is, I just feel exhausted trying to figure out which overhyped claim I should even sign up to/evaluate this week. I'm tired. I want the tide to go out and the serious people to come back to my industry.
Selfishly, kinda? It's a weird moment, I think, for people who've "put in the time." Like, everyone says nepotism et al is bad, and sure, of course. But, when you've been working in silicon valley for 15 years and want your due, suddenly it seems kinda ok? I think that's the hard thing here - sure, meritocracies sound great, but the implication of that is that a lot of people who felt like it was "their turn" get skipped. And as one of those aging people, I understand the problem with my perspective, but I also get why it's hard to accept.
I just wish LinkedIn would change its AI strategy from helping me write better post (barf) to helping me find people I should connect with. I don’t mean suggested connections or sales outreach bots, but more along the lines of “I’m looking for someone in X industry in Y city who is knowledgeable about Z problem domain. Who should I talk to?”
I’d pay for that! 95% of my feed is just LinkedInfluencer slop now. Maybe I’ll just vibecode an extension to block the feed entirely. Algos can help, but not when optimized for time spent on platform.
But, if nothing else, I do appreciate LinkedIn using AI in the most mercenary and engagement-bait ways possible, because somebody's gotta set a floor here.
I adore this post, Benn. Actually, I adore all your writing. But I just refuse to accept the premise of this post!
“This is just the way it is” is a failure of imagination. The music I hear in SF is: when we’re being honest among ourselves, we’re tired of waiting for the AI gods (I mean, labs) to hand us the next breakthrough to swarm around, and compete to commoditization (0 economic profit) through 996. It feels individually unsustainable at best and extractive of humanity at worst. But hey, at least a lucky few will reach escape velocity along the way, right?
(Related: the “get your bag & get out” chorus.)
My favorite musing of yours talks about the evolution of social media - and how we got to TikTok: the sharp edge of the evolutionary tree”, “the culmination of a million A/B tests”, “the final form of a trillion-dollar lab experiment.”
I’m old enough to remember a time when I was optimistic about Facebook: connecting the world together (studying my crushes from afar). Facebook had a choice to be pro-sumer (service consumer demand) or pro-social (shape civic demand). Facebook chose pro-sumer, and now we are here.
I’m hopeful social media can serve as a cautionary tale, and a new generation of AI builders/creators will lean into pro-social.
But you’re right - I haven’t entirely seen this yet.
First, thanks! I'm glad you like it, and really appreciate that.
I think that's fair, though I guess I'm probably too cynical to think that it'll turn out all that different. That YC demo day I went to was so many people making "boring" businesses for the sake of making money, and I know of a bunch of people who've pivoted their startups into ideas they don't really care about because that's where the market it. It all feels a bit like the new version of the artichokes having doubts (https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2011/09/30/even-artichokes-have-doubts/) - there's money to be made, "get your bag and get out" and all that, and then something good or meaningful once the gold rush is over. But I wonder if that moment ever comes - do we become the McKinsey consultant that gets used to the status game and doesn't leave, or the PE partner that starts counting on the money, or the startup founder who makes some money and ends up in VC?
So I guess I agree with you that it doesn't have to be this way, and maybe a new generation of people could do it differently. But if anything, this current generation feels almost more mercenary than the last. Though, maybe there's a counter reaction to that, where it goes back the other way.
Perhaps we either die a dreamer / optimist / founder...or live long enough to become the consultant / partner / VC? I'm choosing optimism today, and calling it growth.
(Admittedly, have a hard time believing it too...)
p.s. i didn't realize the artichokes essay was also by Marina Keegan, who wrote "the opposite of loneliness", which i read in 2013. thanks for connecting the dots!
"But now, more than ever, it seems like the only way to find them—no matter who you are, whether that’s a grizzled veteran or at college student—it is to start typing."
Here’s what I heard continuing the margin call theme… “there are three ways to get ahead. Be smarter, be faster, or cheat. We [can’t] cheat [because no one knows the rules]. And it’s a hell of a lot easier to [just mess around and find out].” Great article! Thanks Benn!
The odd thing is, that's often very hard to do. It seems like going out and trying some stuff should be a relatively easy and straightforward thing to do, and yet, so many of us (and me included) get all tied up in asking ourselves if it'll work, much more than just trying to find out if it'll work.
Oh, absolutely. It's amazing (and almost frustrating) how far an idea can go just by talking about it for 15 minutes. And yet, I still spend so much time thinking about stuff, expecting to come across an epiphany if only I think about it a bit more.
The beauty is that nobody knows. That's what makes this so enjoyable. Would you rather work on a problem where everyone knows the answer and the question is who builds it the fastest?
I just wish the signal-to-noise ratio was a bit lower. I'd agree with you if people got zapped with cattle prods for making bullshit claims. As it is, I just feel exhausted trying to figure out which overhyped claim I should even sign up to/evaluate this week. I'm tired. I want the tide to go out and the serious people to come back to my industry.
Selfishly, kinda? It's a weird moment, I think, for people who've "put in the time." Like, everyone says nepotism et al is bad, and sure, of course. But, when you've been working in silicon valley for 15 years and want your due, suddenly it seems kinda ok? I think that's the hard thing here - sure, meritocracies sound great, but the implication of that is that a lot of people who felt like it was "their turn" get skipped. And as one of those aging people, I understand the problem with my perspective, but I also get why it's hard to accept.
I just wish LinkedIn would change its AI strategy from helping me write better post (barf) to helping me find people I should connect with. I don’t mean suggested connections or sales outreach bots, but more along the lines of “I’m looking for someone in X industry in Y city who is knowledgeable about Z problem domain. Who should I talk to?”
I’d pay for that! 95% of my feed is just LinkedInfluencer slop now. Maybe I’ll just vibecode an extension to block the feed entirely. Algos can help, but not when optimized for time spent on platform.
But, if nothing else, I do appreciate LinkedIn using AI in the most mercenary and engagement-bait ways possible, because somebody's gotta set a floor here.
I adore this post, Benn. Actually, I adore all your writing. But I just refuse to accept the premise of this post!
“This is just the way it is” is a failure of imagination. The music I hear in SF is: when we’re being honest among ourselves, we’re tired of waiting for the AI gods (I mean, labs) to hand us the next breakthrough to swarm around, and compete to commoditization (0 economic profit) through 996. It feels individually unsustainable at best and extractive of humanity at worst. But hey, at least a lucky few will reach escape velocity along the way, right?
(Related: the “get your bag & get out” chorus.)
My favorite musing of yours talks about the evolution of social media - and how we got to TikTok: the sharp edge of the evolutionary tree”, “the culmination of a million A/B tests”, “the final form of a trillion-dollar lab experiment.”
I’m old enough to remember a time when I was optimistic about Facebook: connecting the world together (studying my crushes from afar). Facebook had a choice to be pro-sumer (service consumer demand) or pro-social (shape civic demand). Facebook chose pro-sumer, and now we are here.
I’m hopeful social media can serve as a cautionary tale, and a new generation of AI builders/creators will lean into pro-social.
But you’re right - I haven’t entirely seen this yet.
First, thanks! I'm glad you like it, and really appreciate that.
I think that's fair, though I guess I'm probably too cynical to think that it'll turn out all that different. That YC demo day I went to was so many people making "boring" businesses for the sake of making money, and I know of a bunch of people who've pivoted their startups into ideas they don't really care about because that's where the market it. It all feels a bit like the new version of the artichokes having doubts (https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2011/09/30/even-artichokes-have-doubts/) - there's money to be made, "get your bag and get out" and all that, and then something good or meaningful once the gold rush is over. But I wonder if that moment ever comes - do we become the McKinsey consultant that gets used to the status game and doesn't leave, or the PE partner that starts counting on the money, or the startup founder who makes some money and ends up in VC?
So I guess I agree with you that it doesn't have to be this way, and maybe a new generation of people could do it differently. But if anything, this current generation feels almost more mercenary than the last. Though, maybe there's a counter reaction to that, where it goes back the other way.
Perhaps we either die a dreamer / optimist / founder...or live long enough to become the consultant / partner / VC? I'm choosing optimism today, and calling it growth.
(Admittedly, have a hard time believing it too...)
p.s. i didn't realize the artichokes essay was also by Marina Keegan, who wrote "the opposite of loneliness", which i read in 2013. thanks for connecting the dots!
That one is hard to read, knowing the context. But makes it all the more urgent, to escape the local maxima, as you might say.
:') The llama farm is coming, some day!
A much better dream than a bar.
"The most important thing was that they did it at all". Great line.
"But now, more than ever, it seems like the only way to find them—no matter who you are, whether that’s a grizzled veteran or at college student—it is to start typing."
Excellently said.
Ugh thanks Benn, now I can't stop thinking about Bruce Springsteen singing John Henry
that whole album is a banger
(also: https://benn.substack.com/p/the-industrialization-of-it)
Here’s what I heard continuing the margin call theme… “there are three ways to get ahead. Be smarter, be faster, or cheat. We [can’t] cheat [because no one knows the rules]. And it’s a hell of a lot easier to [just mess around and find out].” Great article! Thanks Benn!
The odd thing is, that's often very hard to do. It seems like going out and trying some stuff should be a relatively easy and straightforward thing to do, and yet, so many of us (and me included) get all tied up in asking ourselves if it'll work, much more than just trying to find out if it'll work.
Epiphanies come from typing, not thinking. -- Typing and conversation for me actually - I've discovered that this is how you get things out of your right hemisphere and into language (all the real interesting insights are in the non-verbal part of your brain). I think you might like this topic - creation vs. application (https://www.linkedin.com/posts/megbear_last-weeks-control-plane-post-sparked-some-activity-7394892346347327488-G2cA?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAAVeN8BrXyqZRtd37eT9lCYDRykSAdLh5A)
Oh, absolutely. It's amazing (and almost frustrating) how far an idea can go just by talking about it for 15 minutes. And yet, I still spend so much time thinking about stuff, expecting to come across an epiphany if only I think about it a bit more.
Loved this - thanks Benn!
I typed this to say “Thank You”
Keep being honestly inspirational and inspiringly honest.